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AuthorTopic: Sub prime crisis (Read 68 times)
outsider
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Re: Sub prime crisis
« Result #1 on Sept 29, 2008, 6:21pm »		[Quote]
Wild ride for everyone. Buckle up tightly.
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Result 2 of 10:
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AuthorTopic: Sub prime crisis (Read 68 times)
Richard Chia
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Sub prime crisis
« Result #2 on Sept 26, 2008, 1:15am »		[Quote]
A friend sent this to me, it can be helpful to explain to our clients.

什麼是次貸危機一看就明瞭

過去在美國，貸款是非常普遍的現象，
從房子到汽車，從信用卡到電話帳單，貸款無處不在。

當地人很少一次現金買房，通常都是長時間貸款。
可是我們也知道，在美國失業和再就業是很常見的現象。
這些收入並不穩定甚至根本沒有收入的人，他們怎麼買房子呢？
因為信用等級達不到標準，他們就被定義為次級貸款者。

大約從10年前開始，那個時候貸款公司漫天的廣告就出現在電視上、報紙上、街頭，抑或在你的信箱裏塞滿誘人的傳單：

『你想過中產階級的生活嗎？買房吧！』
『積蓄不夠嗎？貸款吧！』
『沒有收入嗎？找阿囧貸款公司吧！』
『首次付款也付不起？我們提供零首付！』
『擔心利息太高？頭兩年我們提供3％的優惠利率！』
『每個月還是付不起？沒關係，頭24個月你只需要支付利息，貸款的本金可以兩年後再付！想想看，兩年後你肯定已經找到工作或者 惶嵘秊榻浝砹耍綍r候還怕付不起！』

『擔心兩年後還是還不起？哎呀，你也真是太小心了，
看看現在的房子比兩年前漲了多少，到時候你轉手賣給別人啊，
不僅白住兩年，還可能賺一筆呢！再說了，又不用你出錢，
我都相信你一定行的，難道我敢貸，你還不敢借？』

在這樣的誘惑下，無數美國市民毫不猶豫地選擇了貸款買房。
（你替他們擔心兩年後的債務？向來相當樂觀的美國市民會告訴你，演電影的都能當上州長，兩年後說不定我還能競選總統呢。）

阿囧貸款公司短短幾個月就取得了驚人的業績，
可是錢都貸出去了，能不能收回來呢？
公司的董事長--阿囧先生，那也是熟讀美國經濟史的人物，
不可能不知道房地產市場也是有風險的，
所以這筆收益看來不能獨吞，要找個合夥人分擔風險才行。

於是阿囧找到美國財經界的領頭大哥--投資銀行。
這些傢伙可都是名字響噹噹的大哥（美林、高盛、摩根），
他們每天做什麼呢？就是吃飽了閒著也是閒著，
於是找來諾貝爾經濟學家，找來哈佛教授，找來財務工程人員，
用上最新的經濟資料模型，一番金融煉丹（copula 差不多是此時煉出）之後，弄出幾份分析報告，從而評價一下某某股票是否值得買進，某某國家的股市已經有泡沫了，這一群在風險評估 市場呼風喚雨的大哥，你說他們看到這裡面有沒有風險？

開玩笑，風險是用腳都看得到！可是有利潤啊，那還猶豫什麼，接手吧！於是經濟學家、財務工程人員，大學教授以資料模型、隨機 M評估之後，重新包裝一下，就弄出了新產品--CDO
（注： Collateralized Debt Obligation，債務抵押債券），
說穿了就是債券，通過發行和銷售這個CDO債券，讓債券的持有人來分擔房屋貸款的風險。

光這樣賣，風險太高還是沒人買啊，假設原來的債券風險等級是 6，屬於中等偏高。於是投資銀行把它分成高級和普通CDO兩個部分(trench)，發生債務危機時，高級CDO享有優先賠付的權利。
這樣兩部分的風險等級分別變成了 4 和 8，總風險不變，
但是前者就屬於中低風險債券了，憑投資銀行三寸不爛"金"舌，
在高級飯店不斷辦研討會，送精美製作的powerpoints 和 excel spreadsheets，當然賣了個滿堂彩！
可是剩下的風險等級 8 的高風險債券怎麼辦呢？避險基金又是什麼人，於是投資銀行找到了避險基金，

那可是在全世界金融界買空賣多、呼風喚雨的角色，
過的就是刀口舔血的日子，這點風險簡直小意思！

於是憑藉著關係，在世界範圍內找利率最低的銀行借來錢，
然後大舉買入這部分普通CDO債券，2006年以前，日本央行貸款利率僅為1.5％；普通 CDO 利率可能達到12％，
所以光靠利差避險基金就賺得滿滿滿了。

這樣一來，奇妙的事情發生了，
2001年末，美國的房地產一路飆升，短短幾年就翻了一倍多，
天呀，這樣一來就如同阿囧貸款公司開頭的廣告一樣，
根本不會出現還不起房屋貸款的事情，
就算沒錢還，把房子一賣還可以賺一筆錢。
結果是從貸款買房的人，到阿囧貸款公司，到各大投資銀行，到各個一般銀行，到避險基金人人都賺錢，

但是投資銀行卻不太高興了！
當初是覺得普通 CDO 風險太高，才丟給避險基金的，
沒想到這幫傢伙比自己賺的還多，淨值拼命地漲，早知道自己留著玩了，於是投資銀行也開始買入避險基金，打算分一杯羹了。
這就好像阿宅家裏有放久了的飯菜，正巧看見隔壁鄰居那只討厭的小花狗，本來打算毒它一頓，沒想到小花狗吃了不但沒事，反而還 介L越壯了，阿宅這下可傻眼了，難道發霉了的飯菜營養更好？於是自己也開始吃了！

這下又把避險基金樂壞了，他們是什麼人，
手裏有1塊錢，就能想辦法借10塊錢來玩的土匪啊，
現在拿著搶手的CDO當然要大幹一票！
於是他們又把手裏的 CDO 債券抵押給銀行，
換得 10 倍的貸款操作其他金融商品，
然後繼續追著投資銀行買普通 CDO 。

科科，當初可是簽了協議，這些普通 CDO 可都是歸我們的！！
投資銀行實在心理不爽啊，除了繼續悶聲買避險基金和賣普通 CDO 給避險基金之外，
他們又想出了一個新產品，就叫CDS（註：Credit Default Swap，信用違約交換）
好了，華爾街就是這些天才產品的溫床：
一般投資人不是都覺得原來的 CDO 風險高嗎，
那我弄個保險好了，每年從CDO裏面拿出一部分錢作為保險費，
白白送給保險公司，但是將來出了風險，大家一起承擔。

以AIG為代表的保險公司想，不錯啊，眼下 CDO 這麼賺錢，
1分錢都不用出就分利潤，這不是每年白送錢給我們嗎！
避險基金想，也還可以啦，已經賺了幾年了，
以後風險越來越大，光是分一部分利潤出去，
就有保險公司承擔一半風險！
於是再次皆大歡喜，Win Win Situation！CDS也跟著紅了！

但是故事到這還沒結束：
因為"聰明"的華爾街人又想出了基於 CDS 的創新產品！
找更多的一般投資大眾一起承擔，我們假設 CDS 已經為我們帶來了 50 億元的收益，
現在我新發行一個基金，這個基金是專門投資買入 CDS 的，
顯然這個建立在之前一系列產品之上的基金的風險是很高的，
但是我把之前已經賺的 50 億元投入作為保證金，
如果這個基金發生虧損，那麼先用這50億元墊付，
只有這50億元虧完了，你投資的本金才會開始虧損，
而在這之前你是可以提前贖回的，首次募集規模 500 億元。
天哪，還有比這個還爽的基金嗎？

1元面額買入的基金，虧到 10% 都不會虧自己的錢，賺了卻每分錢都是自己的！
Rating Agencies 看到這個天才的規畫，簡直是毫不猶豫：給出 AAA 評級！

結果這個基金可賣瘋了，各種退休基金、教育基金、理財產品，
甚至其他國家的銀行也紛紛買入。
雖然首次募集規模是原定的 500 億元，
可是後續發行了多少億，簡直已經無法估算了，
但是保證金 50 億元卻沒有變。
如果現有規模 5000 億元，那保證金就只能保證在基金淨值不虧到本金的 1% 時才不會虧錢，
也就是說虧本的機率越來越高。

當時間走到了 2006 年年底，風光了整整 5年的美國房地產終於從頂峰重重摔了下來，這條食物鏈也終於開始斷裂。
因為房價下跌，優惠貸款利率的時限到了之後，先是普通民眾無法償還貸款，然後阿囧貸款公司倒閉，避險基金大幅虧損，
繼而連累AIG保險公司和貸款的銀行，花旗、摩根相繼發佈巨額虧損報告，同時投資避險基金的各大投資銀行也紛紛虧損，
然後股市大跌，民眾普遍虧錢，
無法償還房貸的民眾繼續增多，
最終，美國Subprime Crisis 爆發接近成為 Prime Crisis。

Credit Crunch 開啟的地獄大門，還不知道如何關上……

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Result 3 of 10:
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AuthorTopic: Smaller I-Banks Are Doing Better (Read 54 times)
employee
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Re: Smaller I-Banks Are Doing Better
« Result #3 on Sept 25, 2008, 11:20pm »		[Quote]
http://ir.evercore.com/rectrans.cfm

Evercore's transactions are mostly private equity transactions in US. Just Like Etech in China.
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AuthorTopic: Smaller I-Banks Are Doing Better (Read 54 times)
anyone
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Re: Smaller I-Banks Are Doing Better
« Result #4 on Sept 25, 2008, 11:09pm »		[Quote]
EVR: NYSE, founded in 1996, employees 290, market cap $200 million; P/E ttm = 30.3; provides advisory services only.

Evercore Partners, Inc. operates as an investment banking boutique that provides advisory services to multinational corporations worldwide on mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, restructurings, and other strategic corporate transactions. The company offers strategic and tactical advice to public and private companies; advises clients that are contemplating the sale of certain businesses, assets, or their company; provides advice for special committees and boards of directors; and offers financial advice and investment banking services to companies in financial transition, as well as to creditors, shareholders, and potential acquirers, as well as serves as an independent and objective advisor in financing situations. It also manages and invests capital on behalf of third parties, such as institutional and high net-worth investors that include corporate and public pension funds, endowments, foundations, insurance companies, and family offices. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices in Los Angeles, San Francisco, London, Mexico City, and Monterrey.

Etech is not too small comparing to this one.
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Result 5 of 10:
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AuthorTopic: Internal Communications (Read 85 times)
passer
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Re: Internal Communications
« Result #5 on Sept 25, 2008, 10:38pm »		[Quote]
we need it more all the time, and you can reply without authorization.
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AuthorTopic: Smaller I-Banks Are Doing Better (Read 54 times)
speak out
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Smaller I-Banks Are Doing Better
« Result #6 on Sept 25, 2008, 10:25pm »		[Quote]
Boutique Banks to Cash In

With the collapse or conversion of big banks, smaller competitors stand to scoop up talent and M&A business. Some of their stocks are up sharply

The credit crunch has leveled Wall Street as we know it, but small investment banks hope that leaves more space for them to seize market share from the former titans. Investors are betting it will. The stocks of Lazard (LAZ), Evercore Partners (EVR), and Greenhill & Co. (GHL) have soared. Greenhill is trading for more than 25 times expected profits for 2008, while Lazard's shares are trading at roughly 23 times projected profits. The boutique banks jostle with the likes of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) to provide mergers-and-acquisitions advice to corporate clients.

Toxic mortgages that felled the larger banks simply weren't a problem for these smaller players, who didn't take risky debt onto their balance sheets. They operate primarily like traditional investment banks, focusing on personalized transaction advice without the outsize trading operations of the large securities firms. That leaves them poised to snatch up (BusinessWeek.com, 08/10/08) talent fleeing from rivals, and a larger piece of the advisory business, as buyers seek counsel on mergers and restructuring.

"These firms stayed out of the mess and now they have a historic opportunity to expand," says Roger Ehrenberg, managing partner at IA Capital Partners.

The boutique firms have trust on their side. Their reputations haven't been sullied by massive writedowns or troubled debt lurking deep on their balance sheets. Even though the advisory arms of banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs weren't directly impacted by the subprime crisis, the dust has certainly clouded their reputation.

Purely Independent Advisers
By sidestepping the mess, the smaller advisory firms have earned investors' confidence, say analysts. When corporate clients need advice on how to best structure a merger梠r in this flailing economy, a bankruptcy梩hey will turn to these other banks, perceived to be above the fray. Lehman Brothers has tapped Lazard to provide guidance on its bankruptcy filing, and the firm ranks No. 10 in the industry for mergers-and-acquisitions activity, according to Dealogic.

"There has been a real loss of confidence," says Lauren Smith, an analyst at Bruyette & Wood. "Strategic buyers will want a pure, independent advisory." And that's exactly what these banks can focus on without the organizational distractions plaguing the bigger players.

Before the credit crunch, it was difficult to woo bankers away from the bulge-bracket firms. But already the boutique banks have snagged key players seeking refuge from the security-firm wreckage. Former industry heavyweights are at the helm of the smaller banks. Roger Altman left Lehman to head Evercore, and Robert Greenhill was a former chairman at Smith Barney before he left to start the smaller bank.

The bulge-bracket firms won't cede market share easily. But, if boutique firms capitalize on trust and the infusion of talent, they can take on a much larger role in the new financial landscape.

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Result 7 of 10:
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AuthorTopic: Chinese Macro Economy (Read 137 times)
jay
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Re: Chinese Macro Economy
« Result #7 on Aug 26, 2008, 9:17pm »		[Quote]
In the looser credit market, some of our potential clients may simply apply for bank loans for their expansion.
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AuthorTopic: Chinese Macro Economy (Read 137 times)
jay
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Joined: Aug 2008
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Re: Chinese Macro Economy
« Result #8 on Aug 26, 2008, 9:14pm »		[Quote]
It is expected that Chinese government will adopt economic stimulus package to avoid potential slow down of the growth, as the government recognize the slow-down is much more dangerous than inflation, as the latter is only about 6.5% in 2nd quarter.
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AuthorTopic: Chinese Macro Economy (Read 137 times)
jay
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Chinese Macro Economy
« Result #9 on Aug 25, 2008, 9:08pm »		[Quote]
As Lin Yi-Fu said, China's economy will continue its momentum since the fixed assest investment will continue to grow.
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AuthorTopic: Internal Communications (Read 85 times)
jay
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Joined: Aug 2008
Gender: Male
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Internal Communications
« Result #10 on Aug 25, 2008, 6:18pm »		[Quote]
Dear All, as we already set up our BBS, we strongly encourage every team member to use this as a platform for any issue you like to discuss. Obiviously, we should always use phone, skype and email to communicate besides this platform. Best, Jay
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